The war in Iran has put international energy markets on edge. Although gas prices have risen by 51%, most Dutch households currently notice little of this in their monthly instalment payments. Still, economists warn: the real blow to purchasing power will come with a quarter's delay. For the housing industry, this means that consumers still have disposable income now, but a hand on the purse strings is looming in the near future.
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A large-scale analysis of anonymised transaction data from more than one million households reveals a striking pattern. While fuel prices at the pump skyrocketed almost immediately after the conflict broke out, the median energy bill remains stable at around €161 a month for now.
The delaying factor
There is an obvious reason why consumers are not yet in massive financial trouble: contract type. In March this year, 54% of households still had a current fixed energy contract. They are protected from the vagaries of the global market for now.
Yet this is a false security for retail. For households who need to sign a new contract now, the situation is grim: they are paying an average of 27% more for gas than just a month ago. "Energy payments will continue to rise in the coming months, similar to the 2022 crisis," the analysis reads. Back then, it took about a quarter for higher market prices to fully seep into the average Dutchman's wallet.
Direct impact at the pump
What the housing sector does feel the effects of directly is behaviour at the pump. Median fuel expenditure per household rose to € 155 in March. That is €30 more than in February. Although consumers started driving less to cut costs, this money disappears directly from the budget that might otherwise be spent on new window decoration, furniture or flooring.
What does this mean for home furnishing entrepreneurs?
For home furnishing entrepreneurs, the message is twofold. On the one hand, there is now still a group of consumers with a relatively stable disposable income (the group with permanent contracts). On the other hand, a dark cloud hangs over the autumn of 2026.
Once median energy payments start rising in a few months - and this is expected to happen faster than in 2021 because there are fewer fixed contracts - consumers' priorities will shift from 'beautifying' to 'saving'.
Finger on the pulse
The economists will continue to monitor the data closely in the coming period, especially for vulnerable households that spend a large part of their income on energy costs. For the residential sector, the advice is: take advantage of the current orders, but take into account more cautious consumer behaviour once the 'energy bill slowdown' wears off.
Source: Macroeconomic analysis based on transaction data (May 2026)
