The Swedish Trade Trade Barometer for the month of September shows a somewhat divided picture. The wholesale trade and the daily grocery trade have a somewhat brighter view of the future, while the consumer durables trade is clearly backing down after a strong improvement in sentiment in September.
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For retail trade, the futures indicator fell to 95.8, mainly due to sales and profitability expectations. Rare goods trade saw a sharp decline of 6.9 units, to a value of 92.1. Wholesale trade rose by 2.2 units to 95.4, where expectations on the employment front increased the most.
'It is gratifying that expectations are rising in some areas, but overall it is not a bright forecast. Despite a partially positive tone, it is clear that trading companies continue to have a tough time,' says Sofia Larsen, CEO of Svensk Handel.
Sentiment in trade, especially outside of the consumer durables trade, is showing signs of strengthening. But despite a certain optimism, a tough reality remains for many actors, where the number of notices and bankruptcies continues to be at high levels compared to previous years. All sub-sectors in the industry are still below the neutral level of 100, indicating that pessimism in trade for the next three months is widespread.
After almost three years of recession, the challenges facing the industry remain significant. Consumption levels are low, which in combination with rising rents puts many smaller stores in a vulnerable situation.
Trade, which is the largest employer in business, now needs efforts to reverse this critical situation. In order to avoid an escalating wave of bankruptcies and to reduce notice, Swedish Trade sees a need for reductions in the key interest rate in order to give households more scope for consumption again.
'We urge the Riksbank to lower the key interest rate by at least 75 basis points before the end of the year. If consumers don't get more in their wallets, we risk losing many of the smaller players, who are often the backbone of our cities and communities,' says Sofia Larsen.
As of this month's report, the sentiment within pure e-commerce is no longer measured separately in the Trade Barometer. The explanation for this is based on the fact that there is no longer any contradiction between the physical and the digital channel, but e-commerce is today a matter of course for companies in the retail trade.
More information:
Svensk Handel
www.svenskhandel.se