As the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs approaches its end at 12:01 AM EST on 9 July 2025, European furniture and interior businesses face renewed uncertainty amid a complex global trade environment. Unless formal trade agreements are secured, tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% will be reinstated, posing significant challenges to B2B trade flows in Europe's interior and furniture sectors.
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Currently, US tariffs include a baseline of 10% under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) and up to 55% on goods from China, including legacy tariffs dating back to the Trump and Biden administrations. Steel, aluminium, and automotive components face particularly high rates, with the EU facing tariffs of up to 25% on steel and aluminium products, alongside threats of increases to 50% if no deal is reached by mid-July.
Trade negotiations remain ongoing but fragmented. A recent framework deal between the US and China offers a rare easing on rare earth mineral exports, yet China's effective tariffs remain near 55%. Meanwhile, the EU faces potential tariff hikes unless concessions are granted, particularly regarding non-tariff barriers such as the EU's Digital Markets Act and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Reports indicate EU willingness to offer DMA exceptions in exchange for sector-specific tariff relief in critical industries like automobiles, steel, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.
Canada has paused its contentious Digital Services Tax, resuming talks with the US and aiming for a deal by 21 July. Despite these efforts, experts caution that full resolutions by 9 July are unlikely, suggesting further extensions.
Oliver Frese, Chief Operating Officer of Koelnmesse, emphasises the importance of adaptability in trade: 'Progress is not possible without change.' This sentiment echoes across the industry as protectionism remains a defining feature of US trade policy. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has stated: 'Zero-for-zero deals are off the table,' signalling continued tariff revenues are strategic for the US economy.
Sector-specific tariffs targeting copper, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors are expected to persist or rise, with car, aluminium, and steel tariffs already in place. The average US tariff rate is anticipated to stabilise around 12-15%, maintaining pressure on European exporters.
The ongoing US-China trade tensions, coupled with new tariff quotas and investigations, are reshaping global supply chains. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce condemned the US strategy as "unilateral bullying" that disrupts international trade. This environment forces European interior and furniture businesses to navigate increased costs, supply uncertainties, and shifting trade alliances.
Further legal developments are expected by the end of July concerning the legitimacy of IEEPA tariffs, which could alter the tariff landscape once more.
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