Sweden's retail sector has shown signs of renewed confidence in May, led by a strong rebound in the non-durable goods segment. The latest Trade Barometer from Svensk Handel (Swedish Trade) reveals growing expectations for improved sales, profitability, and employment across the industry. However, the outlook remains fragile, as all sub-sectors continue to report below-neutral confidence levels, indicating that the sector still views the next quarter with a degree of pessimism.
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'It is gratifying that we see such a clear upswing in trading companies' confidence in the future. After a shaky spring marked by concerns about trade tariffs and geopolitics, there is now a somewhat more collective optimism in the industry. But trading companies also know that the situation can turn around quickly, which is a big reason why a certain amount of concern still remains,' said Sofia Larsen, CEO of Svensk Handel.
The Trade Barometer's Future Indicator, which measures expectations over the next three months in terms of sales, staffing, and profitability, showed notable improvement in May. The non-durable goods sector saw the most significant upswing, with its indicator rising by 9.7 points to 90.7. The improvement was largely driven by increased sales expectations, which jumped 12.4 units to reach 95.3.
Confidence also rose in other areas. The grocery trade's future indicator increased by 4.3 points to 89.9, while the wholesale trade climbed 6.8 points to 92.6. Sales expectations were a key factor, with the wholesale sector posting a rise of 10.8 points, reaching 96.9.
'There is no doubt that trade remains under pressure, but there is hope that the turnaround we are now seeing is the beginning of something more lasting. However, this is based on the government delivering on its promises regarding increased growth and purchasing power. A prosperous trading country is good for Sweden in general,' Larsen added.
Despite the positive trend, all segments remain below the neutral benchmark of 100, signalling that overall expectations are still in negative territory. While uncertainty in the sector has eased somewhat, Svensk Handel cautions that risks remain.
'You can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but unfortunately we don't know how long the tunnel is. Our assessment is that the pause in the tariff issue has played a role in the development. But now stability and a long-term perspective are required. Otherwise, the positive tone risks fading. We assume that the Riksbank will lower the interest rate again soon,' said Larsen.
The Trade Barometer aggregates responses from store managers across Sweden and serves as a critical tool for tracking short-term trends in the retail landscape. As Swedish trade navigates a tentative recovery, industry leaders are urging policy consistency and macroeconomic support to turn cautious optimism into sustainable growth.
More information:
Svensk Handel
contact@svenskhandel.se
www.svenskhandel.se