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Poland’s inflation trends higher in May

Final data has confirmed that Poland's CPI inflation rose to 2.5% year-on-year in May, up from 2.4% in April, amid still robust growth in services prices. Headline inflation is expected to continue trending upwards in the coming months, while core inflation is likely to remain sticky around 4% YoY, leaving the MPC no room to cut rates this year.

Prices of goods rose by 1.2% YoY and of services by 6.2% YoY as compared with 1.1% YoY and 6.2% YoY, respectively, in April. The main source of the increase in annual inflation relative to April was fuel, whose prices in May were 3.6% higher than in May 2023 (down by 1.2% YoY in April this year).


A positive surprise is the further decline in core inflation which, according to our estimates, fell to around 3.8% YoY from 4.1% YoY in April. Compared to April, the prices of foreign travel services fell markedly (-9.3% month-on-month).

Experts have seen a gradual increase in inflation since April. This process should continue, with inflation rising markedly in 2H24 due to the partial unfreezing of electricity and gas prices. As a result, by the end of 2024, inflation could rise towards 5% YoY and the MPC should most likely keep interest rates unchanged this year. Unless some protective measures are introduced, a further increase in inflation is expected at the beginning of 2025.

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