Polish retail sales showed moderate growth in February 2026, but economists warn that consumer spending is likely to weaken in the coming months as the impact of geopolitical tensions and rising fuel prices begins to take hold.
According to ING, retail sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year in February, up from 4.4% in January, though still below expectations. On a monthly basis, however, sales declined by 1.1%, signalling early signs of slowing momentum.
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Durable goods and fashion show slowdown
Growth in key retail categories has begun to ease. Sales of furniture, electronics and household appliances rose by 7.2% year-on-year, a notable slowdown compared to the double-digit growth seen throughout much of 2025.
Meanwhile, the clothing and footwear segment, which saw strong growth in January, was almost flat in February, suggesting that earlier seasonal demand had already been met.
Middle East conflict impacts outlook
The outlook for March and beyond is expected to deteriorate, with the conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, driving higher fuel prices and increasing uncertainty. Economists expect this to have a direct impact on household behaviour.
Higher fuel costs are likely to reduce disposable income and shift spending patterns, while uncertainty may encourage consumers to save rather than spend. Together, these factors could dampen private consumption, which has been a key driver of Poland's recent economic growth.
Risks to 2026 growth forecast
ING's current forecast of 3.7% GDP growth for 2026 is now under pressure. Slower growth in real disposable income, combined with rising inflation expectations linked to energy prices, may limit consumer spending further.
While the full impact may not yet be visible in early data, economists expect clearer signs of weakening consumption from mid-2026 onwards, with broader implications for both retail performance and private investment.
As geopolitical tensions continue to influence economic conditions, Poland's consumer-driven growth model faces increasing downside risks.
More information:
ING
www.think.ing.com
