New orders and shipments in the U.S. furniture sector showed mixed trends at the close of 2025. While new orders rose 2% in October compared to the prior month, November 2025 saw orders down 2% versus November 2024, leaving year-to-date orders 1% below 2024 levels. Shipments followed a similar trajectory, down 10% from October and 6% versus November 2024, with year-to-date shipments also 1% lower than the prior year.
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Backlogs in November were down 1% year-on-year but up 3% from October, suggesting some production catch-up. Inventories increased slightly, while payrolls fell 9% month-over-month and 3% versus November 2024, reflecting adjustments aligned with slower shipment volumes.
Consumer confidence remains a key factor impacting the market. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 9.7 points in January to 84.5, its lowest level since May 2014.
Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, noted:
"Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened… References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated."
This decline in confidence has affected spending intentions for major household purchases, including furniture, appliances, and home electronics. While some categories such as smartphones remain strong, plans to purchase furniture, dishwashers, and TVs have softened.
Housing trends are showing tentative improvement. Existing-home sales rose 5.1% in December, the strongest month in nearly three years, though median prices remain high and inventory tight. Mortgage rates eased slightly to 6.19% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in November.
Mark LaFerriere, Assurance Partner and furniture sector expert at Smith Leonard, commented:
"New orders dipped again in November 2025 compared to 2024… Consumer confidence and housing continue to be the main culprits. While 2025 ends on a sluggish note, 2026 could allow companies to capitalise on pent-up demand and new opportunities for growth."
The report signals a cautious but stabilising market, where furniture manufacturers, distributors, and interior contractors should plan for continued variability in consumer demand, material costs, and shipment schedules as the new year begins.
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