Poland's retail sales in November fell slightly short of expectations, yet the country's broader economic momentum remains robust. Retail sales rose 3.1% year-on-year, close to ING's forecast of 3.2% but below the 3.9% market consensus. Growth slowed from October's 5.4% YoY increase. Seasonally adjusted, sales increased 1.1% month-on-month, while overall goods prices edged down by 0.3% YoY, driven by lower prices for cars, furniture, electronics, appliances, clothing, and gasoline.
© Iakov Filimonov | Dreamstime
Durable goods continued to perform strongly, with double-digit growth in furniture, electronics, household appliances (16.6% YoY), motor vehicles and parts (12.9%), and textiles, clothing, and footwear (12.2%). Conversely, food sales declined by 2.9% YoY, while newspapers, books, and other specialised store sales fell 5.2% YoY.
Despite the weaker-than-expected figures, the retail sector's upward trajectory persists, supporting private consumption as the main driver of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, Poland's economic growth is expected to become more balanced, with stronger contributions from industry, construction, and fixed investment. The execution of the National Recovery and Resilience programme and significant inflows of EU funds are set to boost gross fixed capital formation, projected to expand by 8.2%, while private consumption is forecast to grow 3.4%. Overall GDP growth is expected to reach 3.7%, keeping Poland at the forefront of growth within Central and Eastern Europe and the broader EU.
In summary, while November retail sales underperformed relative to market expectations, the outlook for Poland's economy remains solid. A combination of ongoing consumer spending, robust investment, and strategic EU funding supports a positive growth trajectory for 2026.
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ING
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