German exports stagnated in October, signalling that the post-summer rebound in trade has already come to a halt. Data from ING shows exports rose by only 0.1% month-on-month, down from 1.4% in September, while imports fell 1.2% MoM, widening the trade surplus to €16.9 billion.
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The slowdown underscores Germany's exposure to broader geopolitical shifts, including US tariffs, Chinese overcapacities, and global supply chain restructuring. Since the start of 2025, exports to the US have dropped to 9.5% of total exports from 10.5% last year, while exports to China fell to 5% from nearly 6% in 2024. Conversely, imports from China grew over 10% this year, highlighting an increasingly uneven trade relationship.
European markets, including Central and Eastern Europe, are partially compensating for losses in traditional destinations. Germany now exports more to Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic than to the US, while trade with the UK has declined from almost 8% of exports in 2014 to 5% today.
Looking ahead, German exporters face persistent headwinds. US tariffs continue to weigh on exports, and a "triple China shock", weaker Chinese demand, rising Chinese competition, and dependency on Chinese rare earths, limits recovery potential. ING notes that "it currently requires a lot of imagination to see a quick return of the export sector as a powerful growth engine for the German economy."
On a positive note, German fiscal stimulus is set to rise. The Bundestag is expected to approve 29 military procurement contracts worth €52 billion next week, providing a potential boost for domestic demand in 2026.
The latest trade data paints a picture of structural change in German exports, emphasising that the road to sustainable economic growth will depend less on trade and more on domestic investment and strategic fiscal initiatives.
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ING
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