The US furniture and mattress industry weathered Black Friday weekend 2025 remarkably well, despite heavy snowfall in parts of the northeastern and midwestern United States. This is according to a recent sector analysis by merchant bank Piper Sandler. Sales remained stable on average compared to last year, although this does represent a cooling off compared to earlier bank holiday weekends this year.
According to analysts, this slowdown is largely explained by exceptionally strong sales during Black Friday 2024, when the market benefited from post-election optimism and delayed consumer spending. Moreover, recent winter storms depressed physical shop visits.
© Piper Sandler
Two clear favourites for 2026
Piper Sandler identifies two companies as distinct contenders for investors looking ahead to 2026: Somnigroup International (SGI) and Wayfair.
Somnigroup International (SGI): Within SGI, the Tempur brand in particular performed strongly over the Black Friday weekend. Sealy also managed to meet or even slightly exceed expectations. In addition, Piper Sandler sees great potential in the proposed acquisition of LEG. This move would further strengthen SGI's vertical integration and could structurally improve profit margins.
With the acquisition, SGI will gain greater control over key parts of the chain, such as springs, foam and potentially adjustable bed bases. This creates significant operational efficiencies, according to analysts. Although the transaction still has to pass regulators, the industry expects approval to be feasible. This puts SGI among Piper Sandler's absolute favourites for the coming years.
Wayfair: Online furniture giant Wayfair is also seen by Piper Sandler as a strong player for 2026. The company actually managed to benefit from the snowstorms, which hindered physical shops. As a result, some consumer spending shifted to online channels, which played into Wayfair's hands.
Although the overall furniture and mattress market in the US remained largely flat year-on-year, the fully digital nature of Wayfair offers an important degree of resilience to weather and other disruptions in the physical retail landscape, according to analysts.
Divided analysts on Wayfair
There are now divergent voices around Wayfair in the financial markets. Jefferies recently cut its recommendation to Hold due to valuation, while Truist Securities and Piper Sandler, among others, maintained their positive view on the stock.
Strong comparison base depresses growth
The sector faced a particularly tough comparison basis this year. Black Friday 2024 saw exceptional sales growth averaging 15 per cent, with a median increase of 8 per cent. That spike was fuelled by renewed consumer confidence after the election and pent-up demand.
Despite this challenging equation and snow disruption, November sales for retailers not hit hard by winter weather remained mostly positive on a year-on-year basis.
Looking ahead to 2026
According to Piper Sandler, both SGI and Wayfair are entering 2026 with strong starting positions. More stable market conditions, combined with targeted company-specific growth initiatives, should enable both companies to continue to grow in a market that is slowly recovering.
Source: Investing
