China's trade surplus surpassed the $1 trillion mark in the first 11 months of 2025, driven by a rebound in exports despite sluggish imports and ongoing tariff challenges, according to data from ING.
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Exports in November grew 5.9% year-on-year, reversing October's 1.1% contraction and exceeding market expectations. Year-to-date, China's exports have risen 5.4%, matching the pace of the previous year. Strong performance was seen in ships (26.8%), semiconductors (24.7%), and autos (16.7%), while hi-tech exports overall grew 6.6%, signalling China's increasing competitiveness in advanced industries.
In contrast, sectors heavily reliant on the US market underperformed following tariff hikes: toys fell 12.1%, footwear 10.7%, and furniture 5.9%. Exports to the US declined 28.6% in November, marking a three-month low, though year-to-date contraction narrowed to 18.9%. Exports to the EU, however, surged 14.8% in November, bringing year-to-date growth to 8.1%, while exports to Japan also rebounded, rising 4.3% in November (3.4% ytd). Exports to ASEAN slowed to 8.2% YoY.
Imports remained weak, increasing only 1.9% in November after a 1.0% rise in October, leaving year-to-date growth negative at -0.6%. While hi-tech imports grew 8.7% ytd, imports linked to property and construction fell sharply, with lumber down 15.5% and steel 11.7%. Auto imports also dropped 38.3% ytd as domestic production strengthened.
The imbalance has drawn attention from international partners. ING noted that French President Emmanuel Macron warned the EU may consider raising tariffs on China if trade gaps are not addressed, while acknowledging that boosting domestic demand will take time.
Lynn Song, Chief Economist, Greater China at ING, highlighted that "the 15th Five-Year Plan mentioned plans to increase win-win external cooperation and establish international consumption centres, both of which sound positive for addressing trade imbalances. How soon these measures come through could impact how trading partners react in the coming months and years."
The strong export performance helped China achieve a November trade surplus of $100.7 billion, the highest in five months, and lifted the cumulative trade surplus to $1.08 trillion, up 22.1% from the same period in 2024. ING notes that external demand has been a key factor in supporting China's likely growth target of "around 5%" in 2025, though the sustainability of this momentum will shape the outlook for 2026.
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