Romania's economy recorded a mild upside surprise in the third quarter of 2025, according to ING analysis. Flash estimates indicate 1.6% annual growth, exceeding expectations, although the economy contracted by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter. Overall, after nine months, the economy stands 0.8% above the same period in 2024.
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Despite this positive headline, the labour market is showing signs of weakness. The number of employees declined in September for the sixth consecutive month, while wage growth is trending towards very low single digits. ING notes that this combination is likely to restrain private consumption in the near term, with real wage growth remaining negative for several quarters.
Some economic indicators present a mixed picture. Retail sales contracted by 0.2% annually, industrial production expanded by 0.5%, and construction activity is expected to report robust growth once full data for the third quarter are released. ING cautions that data revisions are possible, as gross and chain-linked series are expected to converge, which could influence interpretations of annual growth trends.
Given the current data, ING would typically consider revising its full-year 2025 growth estimate upwards from 0.3% to align more closely with the 0.8% growth observed in the first nine months. However, the detailed GDP breakdown due on 5 December will inform any updated projection. The bank maintains its forecast for 2026 at 1.4%, which it now views as a plausible central scenario.
Valentin Tataru, Chief Economist for Romania at ING, emphasises that "today's data would normally lead us to an upward revision of the full-year growth estimate… Nevertheless, we will wait for the detailed GDP breakdown on 5 December before revisiting this projection."
The third-quarter data suggest tentative signs of life returning to Romania's economy, reflecting a cautious recovery amid ongoing labour market pressures and subdued consumption.
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