European exporters are navigating a rapidly evolving global trade landscape, with container freight rates falling while export expectations show signs of cautious recovery, according to the latest analyses from Drewry Supply Chain Advisors and Germany's Ifo Institute.
© Mr.siwabud Veerapaisarn | Dreamstime
The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) reported an 8% decline to $1,761 per 40ft container this week, marking the 15th consecutive week of falling rates. Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 10% to $2,311 per container, while Shanghai to New York decreased 8% to $3,278. Asia–Europe routes mirrored this trend, with Shanghai–Rotterdam dropping 9% to $1,735, and Shanghai–Genoa down 7% to $1,990.
The decreases follow a brief early September uptick and reflect carriers' adjustments to slowing demand ahead of China's Golden Week holiday, during which factories will close for eight days from 1 October. Drewry forecasts that the supply-demand balance will remain soft in the coming quarters, leading to further contraction in spot rates.
Against this backdrop, German exporters are showing improved optimism. The Ifo Institute reports that its export expectations index rose to +3.5 points in September, up from –3.0 in August. Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Ifo Surveys, cautioned: "A sustainable recovery is, however, not yet in sight. Global trade flows are currently being reorganised. The German export sector is still seeking its role in this environment."
Certain sectors are particularly upbeat. The automotive industry recorded its highest optimism since April 2023, with an index of 16.7 points, while the furniture and electrical equipment industries anticipate rising international demand. Beverage producers remain positive, and food manufacturers are recovering from August's declines. Conversely, machinery, metal, textile, and clothing sectors continue to face challenging export conditions.
Together, the data illustrate a complex picture for European businesses: while falling freight rates may ease logistical costs, shifting global trade flows and uneven sectoral demand underline the need for careful supply chain management and strategic planning.
Drewry's Container Freight Rate Insight service and the Ifo export survey remain critical tools for businesses seeking to navigate these dynamics, providing independent benchmarking, forecasts, and detailed trade route analyses for informed decision-making in a volatile market.
© Drewry
Sources: Drewry, Moebelmarkt
