The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a New Delhi–based think tank, told The Financial Times that Indian exports to the United States could drop from $86.5 billion this year to around $50 billion in 2026 as a result of a possible 50 percent import tariff.
According to GTRI, sectors such as textiles and carpets would be hit the hardest. These industries are bracing for an export decline of up to 70 percent, putting "hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk."
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"The impact will be enormous," MK Venu, founder of the news site The Wire, told Al Jazeera. "India is not a major trading partner for the U.S., but for India, the U.S. is the biggest trading partner," he said, adding that exports of textiles, apparel, leather goods, and handicrafts would all be affected.
These are "very, very labor-intensive" small-scale industries that will not survive the blow, Venu said of the sectors most exposed to the tariffs. "They will lose business to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and other East Asian economies."
