Despite the arrival of summer and a more favourable interest rate environment, Sweden's retail sector remains cautious, according to the July Retail Barometer from Swedish Trade (Svensk Handel). The survey indicates that while confidence in the future has risen slightly, it continues to sit well below the neutral level of 100, signalling a subdued outlook for the coming three months.
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The clearest improvement was recorded in wholesale trade, where the future indicator rose by 2.9 points to 94.8. This growth was driven by increased expectations for profitability, up 5.5 points to 94.3, and sales, up 5.0 points to 101.3. However, confidence in staff increases fell by 1.9 points to 88.9.
The rare goods trade posted a marginal rise, with its future indicator increasing 0.7 points to 90.9. Sales expectations climbed by 1.8 points to 95.4, though the profitability outlook slipped 0.9 points to 89.3. Employment expectations in this sector improved by 1.3 points to 88.0.
'It is pleasing that glimpses of optimism can now be seen, but this month's barometer confirms that trade as a whole is still in a wait-and-see mode. It is difficult to predict when things will really turn around,' said Sofia Larsen, CEO of Svensk Handel.
Global uncertainties continue to cast a shadow over the sector. In particular, the threat of impending tariffs from the United States is generating concern about export conditions and impacting both corporate investment appetite and household spending behaviour.
'In retail, it is definitely noticeable that households are still cautious. When both companies and consumers press the pause button, the recovery, which the industry really longs for, risks taking longer,' Larsen added.
Swedish Trade emphasised the importance of the remaining weeks of the holiday season for bolstering in-store activity, particularly in towns and cities reliant on tourism. "We now hope that the final weeks of the holiday season will generate high pressure in stores around the country. This is especially important for cities and towns dependent on tourism," Larsen concluded.
While there are signs of recovery in some subsectors, the July Retail Barometer paints a picture of an industry still grappling with uncertainty. Any sustained improvement, Swedish Trade warns, will depend on stabilising external conditions and restoring consumer confidence.
More information:
Svensk Handel
www.svenskhandel.se
