The global container shipping market is entering a fresh phase of rate declines following months of tariff-driven volatility, according to the latest data from Drewry's World Container Index (WCI).
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The WCI dropped by 3.3% this week to $2,517 per 40-foot container, marking the sixth consecutive weekly fall. This downturn contrasts sharply with the sharp rate increases observed through May and early June, which were triggered by heightened US tariff announcements. 'The market reaction to the tariffs was delayed by one month, with rates beginning to climb in May and surging through the first week of June,' Drewry noted. 'However, this trend has since reversed.'
Transpacific spot rates were particularly affected. Rates on the Shanghai–Los Angeles route dropped by 5% to $2,675 per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit), while Shanghai–New York rates declined 7% to $4,210. With the temporary suspension on higher US tariffs for Chinese goods expiring in mid-August, carriers have started cancelling more sailings in anticipation of reduced demand. "Since the big rush to ship cargo before the tariff increase is now over, Drewry expects spot rates on this trade lane to continue declining next week."
Looking ahead, Drewry's Container Forecaster projects a weakening of the supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, with further downward pressure on spot rates expected. The pace and timing of these shifts remain uncertain, however, as they hinge on two key variables: 'Trump's future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships.'
While the volatility appears to be subsiding, Drewry's analysis suggests that ocean freight rates are unlikely to find support in the near term, particularly across major East-West trade lanes.
More information:
Drewry
www.drewry.co.uk