Poland's economy is showing early signs of a recovery in the second quarter of 2025, with positive implications for the interior and furniture sectors. According to ING's latest analysis, April data reveals a rebound in industrial production and wage growth, pointing to improving domestic demand and renewed investment momentum, key drivers for design-led industries.
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'Surprisingly, Poland's industrial production is gradually breaking away from the stagnation in Germany and the CEE region,' ING economists reported. In April, industrial output rose by 1.2% year-on-year, well above expectations of a 0.4% decline. This follows a 2.4% increase in March, defying a negative calendar effect and a high base year.
Sectors linked to public investment, expected to accelerate in late 2025 and 2026, are already seeing growth. These include defence-related services and export-oriented manufacturers, many of which are seeing increased orders from German clients ahead of anticipated tariffs. For interior producers, this could signal stronger export demand and increased government-driven project activity at home.
'The data show slow payments from the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF) of around PLN10bn, but a significant launch of ongoing tenders of above PLN90bn,' ING noted, suggesting a major investment wave is coming. These funds are expected to fuel public construction and renovation projects, creating new opportunities across interiors, fixtures and fittings, and customised furniture.
In parallel, April saw average enterprise-sector wages jump 9.3% year-on-year to PLN9,045 (€2,200), a marked increase from 7.7% in March. 'Wages also grew in market sectors i.e. manufacturing (9.0% YoY from 8.3% a month before) and the service sectors,' the report highlighted. Higher wages may bolster household spending on home upgrades, furnishings, and lifestyle purchases, an encouraging sign for Polish interiors brands.
Although employment figures remain lower year-on-year, the monthly decline slowed, and jobs increased by 3,000 in April. ING noted: 'We expect that the intensification of investment activity should boost labour demand in the second half of the year,' pointing to improving consumer confidence and purchasing power ahead.
From a monetary policy standpoint, ING expects further interest rate cuts through 2025, down to 4.50%. 'Given the economy has resumed its recovery and with the rising odds that the public investments boom is set to culminate in 2026, we assume monetary easing mainly in 2025,' the economists stated. This could support credit-sensitive interior purchases and business expansion in the sector.
For Poland's interior and furniture industries, long dominated by export dependency and cost pressures, this early recovery phase offers a rare chance to capitalise on growing domestic demand, rising wages, and an upcoming surge in public investment.
While structural challenges remain, including labour costs and skills shortages—ING concludes there is renewed cause for optimism: 'We see encouraging signs that the recovery has resumed.'
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