Trade uncertainty driven by renewed US tariff policies under President Trump has continued to send shockwaves across global supply chains, prompting disruption, volatility and a fresh scramble for shipping capacity, according to ING Research.
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The latest round of tariff changes, including a temporary reduction from 145% to 30% on Chinese imports, spurred a sudden revival in container bookings after a sharp April downturn. 'A 50% increase in the first days after 12 May compared to the previous week, and double-digit growth compared to the previous period,' was reported by container liner Hapag Lloyd.
The report, authored by ING economists Rico Luman and Inga Fechner, highlighted the widespread confusion created by fluctuating tariff levels and policy reversals. 'Nothing seems to be permanent,' the authors said, noting the impact on business confidence and investment planning.
April's tariff spike led to a 30% drop in China–US bookings for Hapag Lloyd and Kühne + Nagel, and a 17% reduction in available shipping slots due to blanked sailings. However, the 90-day tariff easing agreed on 12 May opened the door to restocking, creating a 'rush for capacity and potential container shortages in China'.
The Transpacific turmoil is expected to ripple into Europe and other global trade lanes as shipping lines redeploy vessels to meet US demand. 'The sudden surge in demand and associated inefficiencies will have ripple effects across other trade lanes,' ING stated.
Additional disruption is likely in July when a separate 90-day tariff pause on "reciprocal" rates expires. Tariffs could rise by up to 40 percentage points, sparking another wave of front-loading. Further port fees on Chinese vessels and vehicle carriers are due to take effect from 14 October.
Against this unstable backdrop, companies are prioritising diversification and resilience. 'Logistics services providers can certainly play a role in building resilience,' the report noted. However, reshoring remains a long-term and costly process. 'Fewer than 380 US companies indicated that tariffs were unlikely to drive supply chains back to the US,' citing labour and cost constraints.
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