Danish shipping giant Maersk maintains its profit forecast for 2025, despite a revised trade forecast and a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Houthi rebels in Yemen. The company continues to count on continued disruptions in the Red Sea and expects diversions via the Cape of Good Hope to continue throughout the year.
Maersk maintained its EBITDA forecast for 2025 at $6 billion to $9 billion, despite lowering the expected growth in global container traffic. Whereas it had previously forecast an increase of 4%, the group now expects a range between 1% contraction and 4% growth.
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Maersk's positive outlook is partly based on the expectation that the current disruptions in the Red Sea will continue. Despite the recent diplomatic agreement in which the US and the Houthis agreed to stop attacking each other's vessels, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc argues that the terms of the agreement are unclear and that the Houthis have indicated that the ceasefire does not apply to Israeli vessels. Combined with the conflict in Gaza, this offers shipping companies a justification for continuing to avoid the Suez Canal route.
However, this requires coordination within the industry. If major players such as MSC, CMA CGM and COSCO Shipping decide to sail via the Red Sea again, Maersk will come under pressure to join them - especially if customers are no longer willing to pay higher rates for the longer route around Africa. However, as long as all major shipping lines continue to use the alternative route, margins will be maintained.
Still, analysts warn of increasing competitive pressure. Shipping alliances have been restructuring since February, leading to falling freight rates and fiercer competition. Given weakening global trade - partly due to trade tensions - collective pricing policies could come under pressure. This raises parallels with OPEC, where unity is also under pressure with lower prices.
Maersk reported first-quarter EBITDA of $2.71 billion, up 70% from a year earlier and above analyst expectations of $2.41 billion. The group thus sees no reason to adjust its profit forecasts for the time being, despite increased uncertainty in geopolitics and logistics.
Source: Reuters