Global trade is entering turbulent waters as a sharp drop in container bookings, rising tariffs under Section 232, and fluctuating freight rates combine to cast doubt on 2025 trade growth, according to the latest analyses by ING and Drewry.
ING has revised its global trade growth forecast for 2025 downward from 2.5% to just 1.2% year-on-year. The adjustment follows 'a significant decline in container bookings' and the expectation that US-imposed tariffs, particularly Section 232 tariffs, 'are expected to not only remain but intensify,' said Inga Fechner, Senior Economist at ING.
In the first quarter of 2025, US imports surged by an annualised 41.3%, primarily driven by pharmaceutical and tech-related goods. ING attributes this spike to companies front-loading shipments in anticipation of renewed tariffs under President Donald Trump's administration. Data from the International Trade Administration showed that 'imports from Ireland (pharma), or Taiwan (computer & electronic products), showed significant increases', while imports from China rose 8.3% year-to-date despite higher tariffs introduced in February.
However, that momentum has not lasted. 'Container bookings to the US dropped significantly,' ING reported, with bookings from China falling by 44% and 49% year-on-year in mid-April, citing data from Vizion. This sharp reversal has triggered fears of a broader slowdown: 'Globally, TEU bookings have been declining since late March,' culminating in a 12.1% drop by end-April.
At the same time, Drewry reports a cooling in freight rates. Its World Container Index fell 1% this week to $2,076 per 40ft container, '80% below the previous pandemic peak of $10,377 in September 2021', although still '46% higher than the average $1,420 in 2019 (pre-pandemic).' Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam dropped 7%, while Shanghai to Genoa declined by 4%. By contrast, US-bound rates rose, with Shanghai to New York up 4% to $3,646 per 40ft container. Drewry noted that carriers are 'reorganising their capacity to reflect a lower volume of cargo bookings from China' and expects rate volatility to ease in the coming week.
Tariff tensions remain high. ING anticipates that the US's 10% universal tariffs will persist throughout President Trump's term, with some trade partners potentially receiving adjustments or reimbursements. For example, 'automakers [may] reclaim 3.75% of the value of US-manufactured vehicles for one year,' dropping to 2.5% next year. Yet, core Section 232 tariffs, on cars, steel, and pharmaceuticals—are likely to stay at 25%.
Talks between the US and the EU have stalled, with the EU's offer of a €50 billion trade deal, including 0% tariffs on cars and industrial goods, facing stiff resistance. 'If a deal fails to materialise before 8 July,' ING warns, 'the EU will introduce its countermeasures covering €21 billion of US exports.'
Looking ahead, ING sees only modest recovery in 2026, forecasting global trade growth at around 2%, hindered by the baseline tariff environment and ongoing supply chain shifts. 'What remains is immense uncertainty,' ING concluded, suggesting that volatility may continue to define global trade in the months ahead.
More information:
ING
www.think.ing.com
Drewry
www.drewry.co.uk