Economic experts from around the world expect only a slight decline in inflation rates in the next four years, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to the survey, a global average inflation rate of 3.9 percent is expected in 2025. 'Inflation expectations remain above the central banks' inflation targets,' says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. 'Greater interest rate cuts are unlikely with these inflation expectations.'
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The experts surveyed also expect only a slight decline in the longer term, with a global inflation rate of 3.5 percent both for the coming year and for 2027.
In 2025, experts expect an inflation rate of 2.4 percent for Germany, 2.5 percent for Austria, and 1.2 percent for Switzerland.
Inflation expectations have risen, particularly in North America. The experts expect inflation to reach 2.6 percent in 2025, 0.2 percentage points more than in the previous quarter's survey. Inflation in North America is expected to reach 2.8 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2028.
Among the regions with particularly high inflation expectations are South America and large parts of Africa, where inflation rates of over 20 percent are expected.
A total of 1,398 economic experts from 125 countries participated in the survey from December 4 to 18, 2024.
About ifo Institute
The ifo Institute, based in Munich, Germany, is a leading economic research organisation. It conducts studies and provides insights on economic policy, business cycles, and market trends. Renowned for its economic forecasts and analysis, the institute offers valuable data to policy-makers, businesses, and academia for informed decision-making.
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