Swedish Trade's Trade Barometer for December shows that trade ends the year with continued heavy challenges. The futures indicator fell sharply in the daily grocery trade, while the consumer durables trade and the wholesale trade showed small improvements.
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It is clear that many companies are still struggling against headwinds after years of high costs and weak household consumption.
'The large loss of the grocery trade shows that the situation for many companies is critical. After years of high interest rates and increased costs, many households are still cautious with their spending, and this is hitting trade hard', says Sofia Larsen, CEO of Swedish Trade.
Weak profitability expectations
The futures indicator for grocery trade fell by 5.8 points to 96.3, and profitability expectations are especially weak. Rare commodity trading showed some recovery, but the futures indicator remains below the neutral 100 level at 96.4. Wholesale recorded a marginal rise to 96.3. Despite small improvements, all sub-sectors remain pessimistic regarding the next three months.
'Future expectations have certainly risen during the year, but many companies are still on their knees. The industry sees the light at the end of the tunnel, but doesn't really know how long the tunnel actually is', says Sofia Larsen.
Households' purchasing power is crucial for the recovery
Households have begun to see the future brighter, but consumption has not yet picked up. The Riksbank's interest rate cuts give some hope for better times, but trade challenges remain well into 2025.
'If we don't speed up consumption, Swedish jobs and companies are at stake. The interest rate cut last week was a step on the way, but we had hoped for a more actionable Riksbank. In addition, the government must continue to work to strengthen households' purchasing power. It is through consumption that we get out of the recession, says Sofia Larsen.
More information:
Swedish Commerce
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www.svenskhandel.se