With slightly better-than-expected August inflation at 2.47% for Turkey, the annual figure continues to fall, to 52% from 61.8% in July. The significant drop in the headline figure is attributable to the large favourable base effect (as it was 9.09% in August 2023) associated with food and transportation despite adjustments in administered prices.
Photo: Dreamstime.
PPI stood at 1.68% month-on-month, a drop to 35.75% YoY vs a month ago. Global commodity prices that have been broadly supportive this year will likely remain the key determinant of the PPI trend ahead.
Core inflation (CPI-C) came in at 3.0% MoM, moving down to 51.6% on an annual basis, supported by the relatively slow-moving FX basket after the local elections.
Regarding the underlying trend, the Turkish central bank foresees a decline in seasonally adjusted monthly inflation to around 2.5% on average in the third quarter, and slightly below 1.5% in the last quarter of the year.
More information:
ING
www.think.ing.com