Industrial production in May fell by 1.7% year-on-year amid the strong influence of calendar effects (two fewer working days and two long weekends). One of the steepest declines is seen in furniture with -5.0%.
Polish industrial production fell by 1.7% YoY in May, after rising by 7.8% YoY in April. According to the CSO's estimates, on a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production fell by 2.1% month-on-month from April this year.
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Production data has been characterised by exceptionally high volatility in recent months, not least because of statistical calendar effects. April this year had two more working days than April 2023, which bumped up the annual production dynamics. By contrast, May 2024 not only had two fewer working days YoY but also two long weekends at the beginning and end of the month, which, according to expert estimates, weighed on the May data.
Declines in output were recorded in 19 of the 34 industry divisions, with the steepest declines seen in the manufacture of electrical equipment (-29.7% YoY), coal mining (-8.2%), metal products (-8.0%), metal production (-6.9%), beverages (-6.3%) and furniture (-5.0%). Increases were recorded in 14 divisions, the highest being in chemical products (7.1% YoY). Raw materials, the manufacture of computers and electronic equipment and other transport equipment also recovered. In the broader categories, the production of intermediate goods fell the most (-4.9% YoY), and to a lesser extent capital and consumer goods, while the production of energy-related goods increased (+6.4% YoY).
May data from the labour market also turned out softer than expected. Average wages and salaries in the corporate sector rose by 11.4% YoY in May (ING: 12.0%; consensus: 11.6%), following an increase of 11.3% YoY in April. According to the StatOffice note, the decline in average wages vs. April was due to, among other things, a smaller scale of additional payments and overtime pay, which may have been related to the two long weekends.
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