In February, the GfK Euro Consumer Climate once again reflects consumers' uncertainty in Europe. In Spain expectations regarding the economy, household income, or willingness to buy remain unenthusiastic. Saving capacity is among the lowest on the continent, and expectations for price declines are moderated.
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Consumer uncertainty about the economy persists
The population in Spain is full of doubts about the country's economic outlook, as reflected in the various fluctuations that the GfK Euro Consumer Climate indicator has undergone in recent months. In fact, it has slightly improved again after a January decline, but so minimally that the indicator stands at -18 points. This stagnation leaves us in 22nd position among 29 countries and 7 points behind the EU total (-11).
Once again, the major European economic powers have better prospects than Spain, except Germany, worsening their outlook compared to January. Especially France with a 13-point decline and its indicator at -15 points. The United Kingdom closes February with -11 points, Italy with -6, the same as Germany. They are moving away from the positive values they approached last month.
Five months of slow improvement in household income forecasts in Spain
Since September, the indicator reflecting households' income expectations in Spain has been slowly improving. From then until the end of February, there have been 7 favourable points, although Spain is still far from talking about a recovery in confidence in family income. After a 2-point increase from January, the index stands at -9 points. It places them in 19th position out of 29 states analysed, and they approach the EU total (-8 points).
This time, concerning major economies, it is the citizens of France and Italy who have regressed in their income expectations. France, notably, with a 12-point drop, leaving the indicator at -13 points. Meanwhile, Italy drops 8 points compared to January and deepens a very negative figure: -21 points. The opposite is true for Germany, which, after a significant drop in January, now recovers 15 points, positioning its indicator at -5 points. It should be noted that the United Kingdom is on the verge of regaining confidence for another month, although it still resists after a month without variation in the value of zero (0).
Once again, spending restrictions return in Spain
Just when it seemed that January was going to open a new trend towards increased consumption, after a notable 7-point improvement in the indicator, families are again considering restricting spending. Spain once again exceeds 20 negative points (-21). They remain in the 14th position among the 29 countries under study and below the EU total (-24). This already reflects the significant brake on purchases on the continent in general and in Spain in particular.
Once again, among the major European economies, France is the country with the worst outlook: it falls by -5 points and places its index at -42 points. It is accompanied by the United Kingdom with an indicator at -35 points after a 7-point drop. Germany remains at -15 points, while only Italy, among the major European economies, improves the indicator to -5 points thanks to an increase of +8.
Lower expectations for price moderation in Spain
As for predictions about inflation behaviour, they have slowed down in Spain (-1), although consumers still believe there will be a moderation in prices. The sentiment is general among Europeans, as shown by the EU total with -11 points. Remember that, unlike the rest of the indicators, a negative value indicates that respondents expect prices to decrease.
Among the major economies in the region, Germany and Italy are more optimistic about inflation easing, both at -13 points, and France at -5.
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