The Swedish wood and furniture industry organisation, TMF's forecast for 2024 is 4,500 initiated single-family homes, an increase of 500 compared to the previous forecast in the fall of 2023. The forecast marks a turning point, where a couple of years of declining figures now seem to plateau somewhat. However, the numbers remain low. Possibly an indication that interest rates have peaked and order intakes have bottomed out.
There are believed to be several reasons for the weak development, with the security situation in Europe and the high interest rate level being some of the main explanations. After years of declining trends, it is now beginning to level off, but low figures still cause concern, and the industry remains under significant strain, as shown by this year's first Wood House Barometer from TMF.
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TMF's forecast for multi-family homes shows that a total of 1,717 units will be delivered during the period from January 2024 to December 2024, all of which are ordinary multi-family homes. In previous years, the forecast has been in line with actual delivery, but in 2022 and 2023, the discrepancy increased. Therefore, an accurate forecast for the year becomes difficult to estimate. In 2023, the actual figure showed a better result for companies compared to the forecast.
For single-family homes, the total order intake for TMF's member companies was 2,578 wooden single-family homes, a decrease of 47 percent compared to the previous year. Preliminary figures from SCB show that a total of 6,600 single-family homes were started during the year, a decrease compared to 2022 when 12,568 single-family homes were started. TMF's forecast for 2024 is 4,500 initiated single-family homes. This is an increase compared to the forecast in the fall, which was set at 4,000.
'It was during the fall of 2023 that we saw a turning point with a handful of homes, but it has persisted. Partly, it is because the market perceives that we have reached some form of interest rate peak. The combination of interest rates and households' ability to obtain loans is the biggest concern expressed by our member companies right now. Furthermore, the troubled international situation also influences, it is extremely present,' says Gustaf Edgren, TMF's housing policy expert.
TMF's forecast for initiated single-family homes, villas, and row and terraced houses is based on statistics from SCB, weighted external factors, and the general order intake in the industry.
More information:
TMF
www.tmf.se
